ࡱ> tvqrs[ Rbjbjΐΐ-  Yˎ4j%"&&&C' 1 4$NyOgb͑'Y[hQcb0YUO^[T gHe{tVEqS:g b:NS_NVE[hQ-Nv͑ |QwQQbWYuyr_vNSN[hQ@\R_N T7hb4NُN0 (WNSNqS:g{tvSS-N QsǏNNW,gvqS:g{t!j_ OY$R0,{ Ner^0ZQa0 gPbNI{0,geHQǏhtN_HhO HTsQُN{t!j_ 6qTPR)Y[0NNv[ORgNvsQ!j_v gHe'` ۏ cQ^g-NvNSNqS:g{t!j_ sSNVE$R:N;N[ b'`0W_eQ,{ Ner^ b4O gZQabeuv{t!j_0!j_vcQ:N{tNSN0W:SVEqS:gcON[‰!jW0cQv/f (W*gegvNSNqS:g{t!j_^g-N QN0W:S3z[T{tHegvQ ZQabeu N^b:N;N bKNN0 dkY ,ge؏:N [sNSN0W:Svg[hQN3z[ LNag~1uqS:g{t_0W:S[hQ:g6RvSKN0mQeO:NNSN[hQ:g6Rv^zcONW@x'`Fhg (WdkW@x N ^gNSN[hQ:g6RwQ g͑vaIN0 sQ.͋NSNqS:g{t!j_)Y[0mQeOQ:g6R Abstract Since the end of the Cold War, world security situation has changed profoundly. As traditional security issues persisting, non-traditional security issues are continuously emerging. With the further advance of globalization, the frequent occurrence of international crises featuring by high-threatening, fast proliferating and high urgency challenge the security of human society significantly. How to effectively manage these international crises is an important issue in the study of international security. Printed with the Cold War, the security situation of Northeast Asia is facing the same problem. In the history of crisis management in Northeast Asia, there were some basic crisis management modes, such as negotiation, third-party intervention, deterrence, limited war. This paper will firstly analyze cases, demonstrating the management modes. Secondly, takes Cheonan issue as an example to prove the validity of the relevant modes. Thirdly, the paper will construct the proposed Northeastern Asia crisis management mode: international negotiations are the dominant force in the management strategy with selective third party intervention and seldom deterrence. The model proposed for the management of international crises in Northeast Asia provides a macro model. It should be noted that in the future construction of crisis management mode in Northeast Asia, for regional stability and management effectiveness considerations, deterrence should not be the main choice. In addition, the paper also believes that to achieve long-term security and stability in Northeast Asia, a practice that the crisis management should develop to a regional security mechanism is needed. Six-party talk has provided a basic framework for the establishment of Northeast Asian security mechanism. On this basis, the construction of the Northeast Asian security mechanism is of great significance. 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Graham T.Allison, and Zelikow Philip, Essence of Decision: Explanation the Cuban Missile Crisis, Second Edition, by Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers Inc.1999. Henry A. Kissinger, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, New York, Published for the Council on Foreign Relations by Harper, 1957. Leslie Lipson, Definition about Crisis Management, quoted in  Crisis Management or Crisis Prevention, NATO Letter, August September 1966. Thomas Schelling, The Strategy of conflict, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1980. ee Dayton W. Bruce, Managing Crises in the Twenty-First Century, International Studies Review, No.6, 2004. Roux-Dufort Christophe, Is Crisis Management (only) a Management of Exceptions? Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management. Vol.15, No.1,June, 2007. Gross Stein Janice, Crisis Management: Looking Back To Look Forward, Political Psychology, Vol.29, No.4, 2008. Ross S. Robert, The 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Confrontation: coercion, credibility, and the use of Force, International Security, Vol. 25, No. 2, Autumn, 2000. eQzDe )Y[0NNgbJT http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2010/100520_jcmig-roks-cheonan/100520_jcmig-roks-cheonan.pdf. 0JS\qS:gV0-NVNbNvqSi 0 http://armscontrolcenter.org/policy/northkorea/articles/cheonan%20investigation%20report_1.pdf. "  C. Bell, The Conventions of Crisis (London: Oxford University Press, 1971), p.2.  JHKalicki, The Pattern of Sino-American Crises: Political-Military Interactions in the 1950s (Cambridge University Press, 1975), p.3.  Hermann, Charles F., International Crises: Insights From Behavioral Research(New York: Free Press, 1972),p.13.  []yYeY\0\W/Oyrnfl\(y 1987t^Hr ,{533u0  Uriel Rosenthal, etc.(ed.),Coping with Crisis: the Management of Disasters ,Riots, and Terrorism(Springfileld, Illinois: Charles C. Thomas Publisher Ltd.1989),p.10.  Ibid., p.6.  y-NS 0VEqS:g{tSO| QV{~~NǏ z 0 }؈FQ3t;N 0VYNNqS:gYt 0 SS -Nxb'k@b 1993t^Hr ,{6-7u0  XoIQ;N 0S_NVEqS:gxvz 0 SN-NV>yOyf[QHr>y 1989t^Hr ,{1u0  s^W 0VEQzRgNqS:g{txvz 0 SNQN eQHr>y1993t^Hr ,{153u0  HHQMbW 0S_NVEqS:g{t!j_xvz 0 Tg'Yf[ZSXf[MOe 2007t^4gS^.  E.E. Azar,  Conflict Escalation and Conflict Reduction in an International Crisis: Suez , 1956 , Journal of Conflict Resolution XXXI, 1972, p.185.  O.R. Yang, The Intermediaries: Third Parties In International Crises,(Princeton: Princeton University Press,1967), p.10.  Holbread, Carsten, Superpowers and International Conflict (St. Martins Press, New York, 1979), P.58.  Oran R. Young, The Politics of Force: Bargaining during Superpower Crisis(Princeton University Press,1968),pp. 13-16.  R 0TQbegvVEqS:g 0 } 05]Yef[bf[b(>yOyf[) 02004t^,{6g ,{24u0  vMRf[/gLu[eSvi_*g g[ R_~weg ;N(W^INTrIN$NebO(uُNi_ ^IN N:_eS/f\O:N>yOSOvN{|(Wg>yO[-NR vir(T|^y"[v;`T [Sb|^yB\b0L:NB\b06R^B\b0ir(B\bvYcy0rINveS;NOP͑NN[v>yOSO(WvQgv>yOu;m-N@bb_bTymv‰_T_t0(We>yOf[틃X-N eS;N(uegc>yO'`v|^yNT0  sSf_ 0VeSNYN 0 SNNLuwƋQHr>y 2000t^Hr ,{11u0  s^ 0VEQzRgNqS:g{txvz 0 SNQN eQHr>y 1993t^Hr ,{176u0  -NVsNVEsQ|xvz@bqS:g{tN[V{xvz-N_;N 0VEqS:g{ti 0 SNeNQHr>y 2003t^Hr ,{14u0  [o]W/Oyr ^e 0qS:g{t 0sbI{ы SN-NOQHr>y 2004t^Hr ,{21u0  oI{ 0qS:g{t 0 SNnNS'Yf[QHr>y 2003t^Hr ,{20u0  RA IFFA. The Art and Science of Negotiation Cambridge,Mass: Harvard University Press , pp.108-109.  Nl 0VEqS:g{t 0 SNV2'Yf[QHr>y 2004t^Hr ,{183u0  TTVe.s-N_Qz 0TTV[z 0 www.un.org/chinese/documents.  s8 0ċTTVCSt^O 0 } 0NLu~NmN?el 0 2000t^,{11g0  ؚ[e 0QNZQavN

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[]yYeY\I{W 0N-NvVEsQ| 0 ,{373u0  George and Smoke, Deterrence: Theory and Practice, pp. 23-27; Smoke, National Security, pp.77-82.  stQ 0)Y[0qS:g_SgJS\]xpQw 0 http://www.huanqiu.com/zhuanti/world/hanchaojiaohuo/  geb-NeQ 0闛Q0llHhNEeSVsKmVw 0 2010-03-27. http://chn.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/03/27/20100327000011.html  stQ 0)Y[0qS:g_SgJS\]xpQw 0 http://www.huanqiu.com/zhuanti/world/hanchaojiaohuo/  geb-NeQ 0闛Q0llHhNEeSVsKmVw 0 2010-03-27. http://chn.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/03/27/20100327000011.html. V-N.Yeb-NeQ 0-NN[ -NYgQswv g\Sg'Y_c[ 0 2010-07-09. http://chinese.joins.com/gb/article.do?method=detail&art_id=47652. stQ 0)Y[0qS:g_SgJS\]xpQw 0 http://www.huanqiu.com/zhuanti/world/hanchaojiaohuo/ Ibid.  stQ 0)Y[0qS:g_SgJS\]xpQw 0 http://www.huanqiu.com/zhuanti/world/hanchaojiaohuo/  Ibid.  stQ 0YN萍Q!kh`)Y[SNN N [݋k[b}Y 0 http://china.huanqiu.com/roll/2010-05/831507.html.  eNSQ 0[tOǏsQN )Y[ SNNv;N-^Xf 0 http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2010-07/09/c_12318165.htm  -NeQ 0>eQS^yny*JT\(WNwm[9_\Q 0 2010-06-28. http://www.chinanews.com/gn/news/2010/06-28/2365827.shtml  stQ 0)Y[0qS:g_SgJS\]xpQw 0 http://www.huanqiu.com/zhuanti/world/hanchaojiaohuo/  NS\Web-NeHr 0gN)Y[SNN^cS?el)Rv 0 2010-06-16. http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100616/bas140415.asp  geb 0)Y[0llHhb\OVEl㉳Q 0 2010-03-31. http://chn.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/03/31/20100331000028.html.  stQ 0gb~cSV)Y[0llg~ 0 2010-05-20. http://world.huanqiu.com/roll/2010-05/822261.html  TTeb 0Y5[t)Y[0NNbJTup͑͑V?e^f 0 2010-05-23. http://www.zaobao.com/special/korea/pages3/korea100523.shtml  -NeQ 0y͑/TmQeOSQN)Y[0NNg~g 0 http://www.chinanews.com/gj/gj-yt/news/2010/04-29/2255421.shtml  stQ 0)Y[0qS:g_SgJS\]xpQw 0 http://www.huanqiu.com/zhuanti/world/hanchaojiaohuo/  .stQ 0[tOT)Y[SNNTeKQ6R MQ'} _@\RGS~ 0 http://world.huanqiu.com/roll/2010-06/860522.html.  eNSQ 0[tOǏsQN )Y[ SNNv;N-^Xf 0 http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2010-07/09/c_12318165.htm.  stQ 0)Y[0qS:g_SgJS\]xpQw 0 http://www.huanqiu.com/zhuanti/world/hanchaojiaohuo/  _N[ 0NSN:SW[hQggNT\O0R6R^ 0 } 0NS^'Yf[b(T>yHr) 02007t^,{2g ,{53u0  Byung-Kook Kim and Anthony Jones, Chapter 1: Introduction: The Question of Power and Order in Northeast Asia,. in Byung-Kook Kim and Anthony Jones ed., Power and Security in Northeast Asia: Shifting Strategies, (Lynne Rienner Publishers,Inc.2007 ,p.2.   Six-Party Talks Process: Nowand Beyond , Yonhap News, 24 November 2004.l_Melissa G. Curley and Nicholas Thomas ed, Advancing East Asia Regionalism (New York: Rout ledge Press, 2007), pp.92-93.  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